A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
